Recession på börsen, mina råd

Aktieportföljen hos Två Månadslöner ser riktigt bra ut just nu. Axfood är största innehavet på hela 15% och det känns tryggt. Dom äger Willys, EuroCash, Hemköp m.m. Alla behöver mat och det är få som klagar på högre matpriser. Fokuset ligger istället på bolån, el och drivmedel. Axfood har sedan länge har satsat stort på solcellsparker, elektriska lastbilar och hållbarhet. Bolaget är helt själv på börsen, det finns inga liknande bolag och kursen kommer nog alltid stå högt. Tills en konkurrent dyker upp i Sverige.

Investor är ett investmentbolag och här kan man ha mycket pengar investerat. Jag har 13% av hela portföljvärdet inne i bolaget. Jag ser Investor som en fond, enda skillnaden är att man får lite utdelning också härifrån. Kanske även en bättre ledning än hos fondbolagen. Finns också fördelar att äga aktier då man kan sälja och köpa dom direkt istället för 1-2 dagar som fonderna har.

Sedan har jag Fortnox och Embracer, dessa två är mina techbolag, den ena sysslar med molntjänster, lön och fakturering och den andra är ett spelbolag i grunden men har lite annat också som brädspel, mobilspel, film och serietidningar. Jag tycker att jag känner dessa bolag väl och känner mig trygg med att investera 13% och 11% i dom. Totalt dessa fyra bolag utgör 52% av hela portföljen. 

I år är det flesta aktier på minus, vissa till och med rejäl minus. Med höjda räntor tror många att banker ska tjäna mer pengar men vissa andra säger att det är fel att tänka så. Hur det blir i slutändan får vi lära oss från bankerna själva när dom rapporterar sina kvartalssiffror. Man ska lyssna på andra med en nypa salt. Hade man köpt massa banker i år hade man legat på rejäl minus. Både Swedbank och Avanza föll kraftigt i min portfölj. 

Portföljen avslutade juni med ungefär -10% och hittills under första 6 månader har portföljen backat med runt -20%. Det är inget konstigt då vi har haft en fantastisk 2021 och allt som händer i världen med krig, inflation, leveransproblem, covid och räntehöjningar. Jag tycker att det är riktigt bra att vi har bara -20% i utveckling. Det hade kunnat lätt vara -40% med tanke på allt som händer. Det kanske kommer, vem vet? Hur som helst är vi inne i en björnmarknad och egentligen även i en recession.

Recession är inte alls farlig, det enda det betyder att folk köper mindre, det blir färre investeringar, stigande arbetslöshet och världen som helhet bromsar lite. Det räcker med två kvartal i negativ tillväxt och då räknas det som att vi är i recession. Den första kvartalet var negativ och med högsta sannolikhet kommer den andra också vara negativ. Då kommer nyheter skriva att vi är i recession och sprida panik (som vanligt). Men då har vi redan varit i recession i 6 månader. Nedgång brukar vara mellan 1-2 år så det är inte alls farligt. Det kan bli lite värre x antal månader till men sen vänder det och börsen stiger i 5-7 år igen.

Det kallas för en konjunkturcykel. Det går upp och det går ner. Det är bara att vänta ut och inte sälja något. Tvärtom, köp mer istället. Förbered dig inför tuffare tider också, som du ser så stiger priserna och blir man arbetslös så kan det bli tufft. Min aktieportfölj är trygg (enligt mig) och som ni ser slår börsen som helhet som fallit -26% i år. Jag gillar min portfölj, den brukar slå svensk index i dom flesta lägen. Hittills i alla fall.

Börsen är redan inne i en recession och det är fullt normalt. Se till att allt fungerar hemma, alla har jobb, försäkrade hos A-kassan, att du klarar av räkningar och har mat på bordet. Kolla igenom det du behöver köpa eller renovera, räkna in det i dina beräkningar. När du känner dig trygg kan du luta tillbaka och börja leta efter fynd. Jag minns 2008-2009 när alla affärer hade mellan 50-70% rabatter. Det blir likt nu igen, så pass på och köp billiga saker och investera pengar på börsen. Liknande läge kommer uppstå om 5-7 år. 

Två Månadslöner

Going back to swedish language

After carefull concideration I decided to go back to writing in Swedish. This will apply from 1st of July. If you still want to follow my journey you can copy paste the post in google translate and read it in english that way. To summarize the month, I must say that it went ok. The ammount of money made from the blog was 950 SEK which is around 95 euros. 

Sadly the ammount of views per month has dropped a little bit, but I knew that when I changed the language. It is difficult to reach more viewers, it takes a lot of time and effort. At the same time I lost a couple of swedish readers. I thought that it would be easier with the language change. Anyhow it was an experience that I had to try.

Few people like changes, often it is uncertain and scary. But thats how the progress is made. You cant make same thing over and over and expect different results. By making the same mistake over and over and expecting different results is called being and idiot.

By writing the blog in swedish gives me more money from ads, its is easier to find new readers, I live in Sweden, I dont want to change the blog name Två Månadslöner or the web link. Somehow its many small things that make it much easier to do it in swedish. The good thing is that I learned a lot and found a couple of new friends.

The next step for me is to continue my savings journey, become a millionaire, stop working full time as early as possible, most likely move abroad, somewhere warm and enjoy my time together with my wife. If the investments are good, maybe buy an apartment as a side hustle, for renting it out. We will see, still a decade or two left. Hope you had a good time reading my blog and I hope to see you here again! Google translate is the answer.

Två Månadslöner

Travel to Portugal during summer

If you are looking for a great vacation with beautiful beaches, warm water, great scenery and delicious food I strongly recommend a place called Benagil, Portugal. The locals call it Algarve and whats popular about it is the cave with the hole in the ceiling. Others call it rock cave with hole. You wont miss it. The catch is that you cant enter in on foot, you need a boat. That is not a problem if you are close by, there is a bunch of boats, kayaks and paddle boards for rent. Strongly recommend it.

We rented a sailing boat outside Faro and took a couple hours trip to Benagil. The captain was sarcastic and funny. He took care of us for the whole trip. He found a private beach close to the cave, took us there with a tiny boat, placed some sun shades, grilled some chicken and fish, even brought some wine and watermelons. After a couple of hours of eating, drinking and swimming we went back to land. On the way we even saw some dolphins, but they were a bit far away. Great experience for only 50 euros a person. In Stockholm, a dinner cost that much. 

Okey, there was a bunch of restaurants in the Quarteira where we lived in. We tried japanese sushi, brasilian meats, local portugese fish and pizzas, we even went to most coffee shops and bars. Most of the places were very good, good service, decent prices, interesting layouts and best of all most people speak english. From what we seen in the area we expect the whole Portugal to be similar, which is great. Maybe someday we will come back and visit the capital Lisbon instead. 

What I found unique in Portugal is a store called Cork. You know the top of the wine bottle? Exacly, apperently they can make anything from cork! Everything from purses to post cards, cork table mats, hats, jewelry, bags, wallets, shoes, belts, key chains and much, much more! I could not resist myself and I bought a cork hat and a belt. My wife bough a purse and some other small things. The prices were ok too. Just dont ever buy a rip offs from china. Inside there is bunch of plastics and other useless stuff. The originals are amazing! You can bend them, put water on them, and they feel good in your hand. This is how it looks like:

The question I asked myself, is a cork durable? The answer is yes, very durable. Just as durable as leather. The cork products are treated with a protective coat for strength. Fun fact is that around 70% of world cork has come from Portugal. Cork is a portuguese local souvenir. Portugal has made perfected processes of growing, extracting and converting cork to fine products. 

What I noticed in Portugal is that most of buildings have Securitas signs on the walls. It is a safety company that keeps the bad guys away. Securitas is a Swedish company and it amazes me how huge the company is. The company has over 150 000 clients and has operations in 47 markets worldwide. Lately, the stock crashed to new lows, the P/E is now 10 compared to historical 17. The facts are taken from a page called börsdata.se

P/E 17 times the expected profit of 9 SEK for 2022 gives us a normal share price of 154 SEK. Now you can buy Securitas under 100 SEK which is insane. I bought more shares even if its painful to see the shares drop in value. It will go up one day. CEO bought for 1 million SEK on 18th of May. Why shouldnt I? On 16th of June CEO bought another pile of shares for 1,3 million SEK. 

Back to Portugal, the whole trip for a week costed us two a little bit above 1 000 euros which is a really normal price. Compared to Sweden the prices in Portugal are a little bit lower on food, transportation and activities. Regarding Covid I did not noticed much, public transport had a mandatory masks, otherwise it was free to do whatever. I had a great time and I would like to go back there again someday. Maybe even live there when I am older, will see how life turns out to be. I am still young.

Två Månadslöner

I quit my job for F.I.R.E

F.I.R.E means financial independant, retired early. So I quit my job to retire early. No. No I did not quit my job. But this is how the clickbait works. Most of the news industry are writing their titles like this. Even if its not even true sometimes. All they need is a clickbait. During market crashes they use it a lot. Titles like the sky is falling or sell everything and run. People love to read about weird stuff. Especially negative things.

Noone would read about a dog who bit a man. But everyone would click  and read about the man who bit the dog. Thats how news work. Thats how they make money out of the news. Clicks. This is acctually the first time I did this so lets see how many clicks I get for this weird post.

So what is on the news lately? Oh boy the list is long. Here we go: Extremly higher prices on gas and electricity. High prices on food and everything else in general. The heat in Europe with 40+ celcius. How about burning forests. Violence around the globe. Politics. Market crash. Corona. Monkey pox. Vaccinating time for 5th time. Biden falling off his bike. Inflation. Rate hikes. More inflation. Burning farms. Animals dying for no reason. War in Ukraine. China wants war against Taiwan. Lockdowns. Airports failing. Components shortage. Labor shortage and so on.

Paul Newman has said: Its always darkest before it turns absolutely pitch black. Does it makes sence? Yes. When stock market goes down lets say -25% it could definitely go down even more. Most of the times it does. It goes completely to the opposite side as you intended to. Just like in the book One up on wall street from Peter Lynch. It could not go any lower than this, if it does, by every share. My example is Securitas. It did go lower and lower and lower. 

There is only two things to do when it keeps going down. Either you believe in the company that it will go back up and buy as much as you can while its cheap and hold the stocks for a really long time or you just do nothing. Selling is not really an option because it went down already and you still hope it will recover. So log out of your banker and just forget about it. If it does not recover, oh well, at least you did not throw more money in. If it recovers, good. You are still invested.

Två Månadslöner

Reconomica annons

                                     Betald samarbete med Reconomica

När jag pluggade till lönekonsult och skulle leta efter praktik, vissa av mina klasskamrater hade panik. Dom hittade ingen plats. Oavsett vad dom gjorde hittade dom inte någon plats för att kunna praktisera sig som lönekonsult. Jag ville såklart hjälpa dom och då kom jag på att man kanske kan tänka utanför boxen? Dom kanske kan göra praktik hos någon annan likt lönekonsult? Det är ju bättre än ingen praktik alls tänkte jag. 

Jag satte mig ner med ett par klasskamrater och hade den diskussionen. En av dom tyckte inte så mycket om att praktisera någon annanstans, det kunde jag se i ögonen. Den andra klasskamraten var med på allt. Jag tog fram mobiltelefonen och visade olika praktikplatser jag tyckte hade passat bra. Det som är likt lönearbete är redovisning så vi tittade på redovisningsbyråer. 

Ett par veckor senare hittade arbetskamraten en praktikplats på en redovisningsbyrå. När utbildningen var färdig så hade klasskamraten ett jobb på redovisningsbyrå. Den andra som var skeptisk till att göra praktik någon annanstans har inte hittat något praktikplats och inte heller någon jobb efter studier. Hen fick göra ett arbete i skolan istället under praktik tiden. 

Idag har vi ett samarbete med redovisningsbyrå i Göteborg och jag vill ge tips till er som söker praktik, sommarjobb eller jobb är att titta på deras hemsida. Du kanske blir deras nästa redovisningskonsult Göteborg? Bolaget sysslar med redovisning, bokslut och deklarationer, interimstjänster, controlling och start-ups.

Reconomica kan hjälpa sina kunder med löpande redovisning, kund och leverantörreskontra, fakturering, fakturapåminnelser, löneadministration, periodbokslut, kvalificerad rådgivning, bokslut, årsredovisning, budgetar och prognoser och mycket mer än så. Reconomica är en modern byrå med genuint engagemang, som är proaktiv och med kunden i fokus.

Ett par år senare hörde jag mig av till klasskamraten som fick jobb på redovisningsbyrå. Hen jobbade kvar där. Att tänka utanför boxen fungerar. Idag är tjänsterna väldigt blandade, den som jobbar med lön jobbar också med redovisning, den som jobbar med HR ska också kunna förstå löneområdet, den som är chef ska kunna lite av allt. Ju mer man ser, besöker, provar och kan, desto bättre. Arbetsgivarna gillar spindlar i nätet.

Två Månadslöner

This is the reason why individual stocks sucks

I highlighted in the picture the stock market crash for Large Cap for Swedish stock market. Big companies, massive sales, massive profits, very popular stocks and still a lot of stocks declined between 50-75%. There is even bigger crash in smaller companies. The market as a whole went down just -20% and yet, many stocks got hammered. 

This can happen anytime, to anyone in any stock market. Private investor can suffer really badly if they put a lot of savings in the stock market. It is not easy to be an investor in a down going market. Some of the people i follow had millions in their accounts, and now, only a few left. One person have already a drop of -60% in his portfolio. It means it has to go up by 150% to break even. I feel so sad for him, he still believes it will happen. I highly doubt it.

I believe that even rich people get wiped out. Or maybe I should say, especially rich people. Bitcoin is also going down fast, some said that it has hedge against inflation, no it does not. Even gold is going down, when big market drop comes, everything is going down. Only thing to do is to hold cash, but hold it for too long and inflation eats it up. You want to be invested, at least most of your money.

Many people cant pick good stocks, even if they do, even the good stocks fall from time to time. Selling and buying it back cost unnecessary fees. Most people dont even beat the indexfond. Why even try then, just buy the index and forget about the market. It will go back up and you will beat most of investors just by holding indexfund. 

For the people who do have money and who do have time to make research, amazing opportunities like this dont come often. Many of the people i follow are buying heavy. I saw even the management teams and CEOs are buying shares like never before. They are also people, but they know how the quarter has been. I think the second quarter will be just as good as the first one with words like: uncertain future lies ahead. Its always the same, things dont change too much. Good, profitable companies will still be good even during reccession.

Två Månadslöner

Vacation in Sweden

Vacation is the best thing ever! My vacation begins today and I am free from work for 4 weeks. The good thing about my job is that I get 6 weeks off, so I am going to have a couple of weeks left for later. On top of that, the collective agreement at my workplace gives around 32 hours of shortening hours, which means I can take more time off. So in total I receive 34 days. Standard in Sweden is 25, some people get 30 days off. Few people get even more than that if the collective agreement says so.

So I work as a payroll specialist, what is that? I make sure that people receive their salaries. In the beginning of the month, I receive the files that includes all working hours, overtime and leave of abscences. I need to fix all the mistakes in the system (for couple hundred people). In total I am responsible for over 1 000 employees, but most of them looks good in the system from the very beginning. 

The mistakes could be that some people have minus vacation days or the calculations for abscence are wrong. I increase peoples salaries, change their emails, register new employees, pay out the last salary for people who quit their jobs, I register the changes to tax authorities and other authorities if they are on parental leave for example. There is a long list of things that must be done during the month. 

So, back to vacation. My goal is to do as much as possible for as little money as possible. I am thinking about visiting Denmark, maybe even Germany. I dont live too far away, so it is more than doable. There is also a lot of places in Sweden that are beautiful and worth a visit. Me and my wife have seen many places here already, so we are thinking about something else now. 

At home we will renovate the basement, it should not cost more than 300 euros. We also need to remove the paint from the stairs and make it look better. The outside space looks pretty good already, maybe some small fixes here and there left. If I have enough time I will even make the carport look better. It needs some more love. The pictures will come to the blog later.

The queues in the Stockholm airport are insane, so I was thinking maybe going abroad during autumn instead. During summer time it is crazy to do something big, since everyone is having the same ideas. I am not a patient fellow and I get angry pretty fast when people are in my way. Having vacation now while everyone else is still working is the best. No queues, good service and pretty good weather already. When do you have vacation and how many days per year?

Två Månadslöner

How to live for free

Today I will tell you how to live for free. No, it is not living with your parents in the basement. You can do much better than that. My advice is to buy a big house with two seperate entrances. One side of the house is yours and the other one must be rented out. All you need to do is take a rent which equals the ammount of your expences like mortgage, interest, electricity, water and trash. I wish I knew this before buying my first home.

Another tip I have is much more expensive. If you are in your 20s or 30s you can start saving in the stock market. With dividends reinvested and high savings rate you could save millions in 30-40 year period. Those millions give around 3-4% in dividends every year. Use that money to live for free. Hundreds of people already doing it and its called FIRE (financialy independant, retired early). Is it easy? No. Is it possible? Yes.

There is also a possibility to buy a huge house with 4 apartments and rent the whole thing out. From the profits you should be able to live for free in your own home. Just like the other two advices, a massive capital is required. A lot depends on your living expenses as well. The more frugal you live, the easier it is to live for free. 

The whole point of living free is to make someone else to pay for your expences. Imagine Harry Potter books. Now the writer is collecting royalties without doing anything. She put in the work at the start and now its done. Same with investments, both real estate and stocks. 

Another great advice I have is for single people. It will not make you live for free but it is close to it. Imagine you find a person you love, you move in together and at the same time everything becomes half price for you. Since you live together, most things you buy or do is shared in half. Rent, a new TV, a car, food and stuff, everything is much cheaper for you now. Isnt it amazing? It is even possible to marry rich and never work again, but that is just mean, or what do you think? 

People are made to work, one way or another. I believe it would be boring not to do anything. Find your passion instead, there must be something you love doing. Make it a hobby, make it a job, make money from it. Me and my wife have many hobbies and all of them gives us money. Some more, some less but in the end, its a good hobby to have.

Två Månadslöner

How to make extra money

May has been a normal month for the sides hustles. The blog generated 40 euros during the period and a month before that (april) had generated 50 euros. When the treasury in Google Ads reaches 70 euros I get the payout to the bank account. In the end of June I will receive 90 euros in total from Google Adscence commercials. Besides that, my wife trims the dogs as a side hustle. She did it once which also gave arount 60 euros. 

My stock portfolio gives dividends, May generated 100 euros from Securitas and Nordic Paper. Lastly we received higher salaries in May. In Sweden we get salary increase from 1 of April, but the money is transferred in May retroactively. So in total, May has been a good month money wise. The extra money we make is spent on renovations at home or being reinvested to earn more money later.

In total I had a bit over 12 000 visitors to the blog in May, it has been stable for the last quarter and by changing swedish language to english should increase it. How about the savings rate? I pay a lot of mortgage back to the bank for the house loan. Besides that I paying slowly back the student loan and investing in stocks. Whats left in my wallet is used as an emergency fund. 

My savings rate for May has been close to 60% of the salary. To save 50% or more every month is considered to be a very good. Only a few chosen ones can save 70% or more each month. Whats recommended is around 10-15% in savings rate.

Each and everyone of you that reads this blog can make extra money. All you need to do is either work overtime at your job or do something outside work, like repairing cars, painting houses, cutting the lawn for neighbours, being a Santa Claus, selling strawberry plants, buying cheap stuff on internet and reselling more expensive, I even made money playing video games and when I reached higher levels I sold the accounts. There is endless posibilities on how to make extra money and I have not even mentioned internet. There is many ways to make extra money online too.

Do you have any side hustles that you want to share? What I focus the most is the big money. By for example changing the bank I got lower interest rates which saved me almost a 100 euros a month. Also I focus on my job, because if I get a salary increase, then its permanent. Lowering food costs is also important and these days, even electricity is important. Gas prices is not a joke either. Focus at big things first, than you can save alot of money.

Två Månadslöner

One of the best gaming stocks in the world

Embracer is an amazing company and I believe everyone should be invested in it. Just like EA, Activision, Take Two or Ubisoft. Embracer is growing so fast its now the biggest gaming company in Europe. Whats so special about Embracer? They have created popular games like Wreckfest, Spongbob, Destroy all humans, Biomutant, Metro, Goat simulator, World War Z, Saints Row and many more. Besides gaming, the company have invested in comic books, movies, board games, VR and mobile games. That creates a nice cash flow and the money is used to buy more gaming companies around the world.

From a small company in värmland, Sweden they grew to a massive gaming company. Since 2016 the stock went up by 1 800% and yet, the stock could go much higher. Recommendations from analysts are between 130 - 160 SEK per share and the stock price now is around 87 SEK. 

In last quarterly report company announced that there is 223 ongoing pipeline projects (games) of which 159 is unannounced. Even over 25 AAA games are planned tp release until march 2026. When I listened to the presentation, everyone was super excited for the future, since the best games are yet to come.

There is many more interesting things happening in the company. In the end of the year 2022 Embracer is planning to make a stock market change from First North to Swedish Large Cap list. Which means big investors will start buying shares. Also, a couple of years ago Embracer mentioned by mistake that Metro franschise is having plans for Multiplayer game mode.

Recently Embracer bought parts of Square Enix games, including Tomb Raider franschise, Thief, Deus Ex and many more. Compared to other gaming companies Embracer is doing very well. We all know that EA is popular for Sims and FIFA, Take Two for GTA and Activision for Call of Duty. Embracer has huge ammounts of games which looks much more promising than other gaming companies. During the years I have bought many shares. You can see the picture below. 

I tried couple of games from Embracer and they were really good. The company tries to release quality games, not like some other companies with bugs and glitches. I believe there is alot of potential onwards, both in sales and creating new exciting games. Around 1,5% of gaming market is taken by Embracer, so there is much more ground to cover. In Sweden there is a few gaming companies, but Embracer is by far the best one in my opinion.

I believe that during the coming years, the company will makes lots of money, invest in other companies, build amazing AAA games, and in the coming years, reach the big dogs like EA, Activision and Nintendo. If you are looking for a great gaming stock to your portfolio, Embracer could be the one. 

Två Månadslöner

What is Två Månadslöner?

I changed languages from Swedish to English so that more people can read about Swedish (and some other) stocks. In this blogg I even write about savings, investing, money advice and general advice about the economy. The whole blogg is for entertainment only and should not be seen as a financial advice where you should spend or invest your money in. You must do your own research. I even do some stock researches where you can find some inspiration.

Who am I you wonder? I am a 30 year old man working with payroll. I have been invested in the Swedish market for almost 5 years now. I am good at saving and investing. My portfolio have not changed much since I started, I like the Warren Buffett style with a mix of Ray Dalio and Peter Lynch. I am very skeptical about other investors. During the years I found people that I trust the most.

English is not my main language so I am sorry for the mistakes in advance. Me and my wife are living in the small village in southern Sweden, we have a poodle named Lilly and we have a lot of side hustles. More about them in the future posts. We live in a typical Swedish red house with white corners. Most of the house is paid off and we have a car, which is of course, paid off. We really dislike the loans. 

Our home looks like IKEA store, the garden is minimalistic, we do some renovations here and there ourselfs to save that extra money. My wife is working as an engineer and we have no kids. We are DINKS (double income no kids). We been married for over 10 years now and been together for around 13 years.

What does Två Månadslöner mean? It means two monthly salaries. My original goal since I started investing was to make approximatly two monthly salaries in dividens each year. For that I need a portfolio of 1 million SEK. Swedish stocks gives around 3-4% in dividends in general. Some way more, some way less. More about swedish dividens in the future posts. I am posting couple times a week to have some time for myself in between. So that was abit about me and I cant wait to learn more about you!

Can you buy Swedish stocks in your home country? Or funds? Maybe scandinavian stocks from Norway? Denmark or Finland? Would be interesting to learn more about you, where are you from and what would you like to read about in my blog? 

Två Månadslöner